with the iana free pool run-out, i guess we won't be getting those nice
graphs any more. might we have one last one for the turnstiles? :-)/2
and would you mind doing the curves now for each of the five rirs?
gotta give us all something to repeat endlessly on lists and in presos.
randy
I think having a graph that reached full and stays there will be quite
powerful. 
Adrian
Headline material - IPv4 flatlines ... the world as we know it will come to an end
Antonio Querubin
e-mail/xmpp: tony@lava.net
perhaps of more interest would be to see what the injection
rate is ... there has been some speculation that holes/more specifics
would become more prevalent. but that might be someone elses research...
--bill
All manner of dooms day-like stories and headlines tomorrow..I dare predict
http://www.cio.co.ke/Top-Stories/address-allocation-kicks-off-ipv4-endgame.html
Raymond Macharia
The individual RIR graphs won't be around long enough to be worth the
effort... 
FWIW: the Jan. 2011 global burn rate (outbound from the RIRs) for
/24-equivlents was 18.97 seconds. At the Jan. rate, APnic won't last to June
and Ripe might make to the end of August, then chaos ensues. Is there really
any value in trying to distribute graphs that will all be flat before the
end of the year?
Tony
We have been doing it for a few months.
http://www.lacnic.net/en/registro/espacio-disponible-ipv4.html
We are working in a new model to forecast the available space over time and in providing the data so anybody can do their own graphs.
Also APNIC has some very useful data:
http://www.apnic.net/community/ipv4-exhaustion/graphical-information
Regards,
-as
but of course.
http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/rir.jpg
This is a different graph - it is a probabilistic graph that shows the predicted month when the RIR will be down to its last /8 policy (whatever that policy may be), and the relative probability that the event will occur in that particular month.
The assumption behind this graph is that the barricades will go up across the regions and each region will work from its local address pools and service only its local client base, and that as each region gets to its last /8 policy the applicants will not transfer their demand to those regions where addresses are still available. Its not possible to quantify how (in)accurate this assumption may be, so beyond the prediction of the first exhaustion point (which is at this stage looking more likely to occur in July 2011 than not) the predictions for the other RIRs are highly uncertain.
Geoff
FWIW: the Jan. 2011 global burn rate (outbound from the RIRs) for
/24-equivlents was 18.97 seconds. At the Jan. rate, APnic won't last
to June and Ripe might make to the end of August, then chaos ensues.
this is not the murdoch press or fox news. i very much doubt chaos will
ensue. our job is to see that chaos does not ensue. you will learn to
love nat444 
Is there really any value in trying to distribute graphs that will all
be flat before the end of the year?
we're ops, often stick in the mud traditionalists and even somewhat
supersitious. we've had ipv4 graphs for over 15 years. we like them.
geoff is mr graph. we like his grphs. heck, you have even used them.
randy
If you're standing near the edge of a cliff, the difference between 1 inch and 6 inches is significant. Vendors are watching from the distance, saying "he's at the edge of the cliff!". But to the guy standing there, it matters.
Plus, I like graphs.
Cheers,
-Benson
http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/rir.jpg
This is a different graph - it is a probabilistic graph that shows the
predicted month when the RIR will be down to its last /8 policy
(whatever that policy may be), and the relative probability that the
event will occur in that particular month.
brilliant! and damned useful!
there's a reason you get the big bucks. thanks. really appreciated.
randy
with the iana free pool run-out, i guess we won't be getting those nice
graphs any more. might we have one last one for the turnstiles? :-)/2and would you mind doing the curves now for each of the five rirs?
gotta give us all something to repeat endlessly on lists and in presos.but of course.
I can almost hear the cutting and pasting going on across the globe with this.
- Mark
Geoff,
Very nice work! In order to further enhance it, LACNIC exhaustion
policy specifies /12 instead of /8, as specified in
http://lacnic.net/en/politicas/manual11.html, so it will probably take
a few more months to such a policy be in force.
Rubens
FWIW: the Jan. 2011 global burn rate (outbound from the RIRs) for
/24-equivlents was 18.97 seconds. At the Jan. rate, APnic won't last
to June and Ripe might make to the end of August, then chaos ensues.this is not the murdoch press or fox news. i very much doubt chaos will
ensue. our job is to see that chaos does not ensue. you will learn to
love nat444
the aportionment of scarce resources though market signals whether
direct or indirect is actually something humans are rather good at
despite the occasional failure.
the engineer is the person who given the available resources comes with
a workable solution.
Is there really any value in trying to distribute graphs that will all
be flat before the end of the year?we're ops, often stick in the mud traditionalists and even somewhat
supersitious. we've had ipv4 graphs for over 15 years. we like them.
geoff is mr graph. we like his grphs. heck, you have even used them.
the prboability distribution with the error bars is a pretty useful tool
to throw over the wall to management so that they know how long they
have to get their affairs in order.
the prboability distribution with the error bars is a pretty useful
tool to throw over the wall to management so that they know how long
they have to get their affairs in order.
i suspect it's more like most folk should save a gif so they can
say "i warned you," when they need a bunch of money to bail the
deaf management's asses out in a year.
rndy
* Geoff Huston
Ohh, very nice, Geoff! Thank you!
A few questions, though:
1) The graph shows the most probable APNIC depletion date to be in July.
However your site at <http://ipv4.potaroo.net> says 25-Sep-2011. What's
the reason for this discrepancy?
2) Do you intend to update the graph daily? I noticed that it didn't
change this morning along with all your other graphs.
3) May I copy it into my own presentations about IPv4 and IPv6?
Regards,
So in the interest of 'second opinions never hurt', and I just can't get my
head around "APnic sitting at 3 /8's, burning 2.3 /8's in the last 2 months
and the idea of a 50% probability that their exhaustion event occurs Aug.
2011", here are a couple other graphs to consider.
http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4-rir-pools.pdf
http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4-rir-pools-zoom.pdf
Tony
Two things:
1) you'll get better uptake of your graph if it's visible as a simple
image, rather than requiring a PDF download. 
2) labelling the Y axis would help; I'm not sure what the scale
of 1-8 represents, unless it's perhaps the number of slices of
pizza consumed per staff member per address allocation request?
But I do agree with what seems to be your driving message, which
is that Geoff could potentially be considered "optimistic". ^_^;
Matt
So in the interest of 'second opinions never hurt', and I just can't get my
head around "APnic sitting at 3 /8's, burning 2.3 /8's in the last 2 months
and the idea of a 50% probability that their exhaustion event occurs Aug.
2011", here are a couple other graphs to consider.
http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4-rir-pools.pdf
http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4-rir-pools-zoom.pdfTony
Two things:
1) you'll get better uptake of your graph if it's visible as a simple
image, rather than requiring a PDF download.
Not wishing to advertise google but
http://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4-rir-pools.pdf
and
http://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4-rir-pools-zoom.pdf
works for me without needing to download a pdf viewer
Vince
