ipv4's last graph

From: Vincent Hoffman [mailto:jhary@unsane.co.uk]
Sent: Wednesday, February 02, 2011 9:44 AM
To: nanog@nanog.org
Subject: Re: ipv4's last graph

>> So in the interest of 'second opinions never hurt', and I just can't
get my
>> head around "APnic sitting at 3 /8's, burning 2.3 /8's in the last 2
months
>> and the idea of a 50% probability that their exhaustion event occurs
Aug.
>> 2011", here are a couple other graphs to consider.
>> http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4-rir-pools.pdf
>> http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4-rir-pools-zoom.pdf
>>
>> Tony
> Two things:
>
> 1) you'll get better uptake of your graph if it's visible as a simple
> image, rather than requiring a PDF download. :confused:
Not wishing to advertise google but

http://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4-
rir-pools.pdf
and
http://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4-
rir-pools-zoom.pdf

works for me without needing to download a pdf viewer

For some reason that viewer didn't work here, so I added jpg's to the site.
http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4-rir-pools.jpg
http://www.tndh.net/~tony/ietf/IPv4-rir-pools-zoom.jpg

Vince

> 2) labelling the Y axis would help; I'm not sure what the scale
> of 1-8 represents, unless it's perhaps the number of slices of
> pizza consumed per staff member per address allocation request?

I thought about leaving it off completely, but figured I would be asked for
scale. It is /8's remaining until they drop into their 'last allocation'
policy. I will see if I can figure out how to fit that into something
readable.

>
> But I do agree with what seems to be your driving message, which
> is that Geoff could potentially be considered "optimistic". ^_^;

Geoff has always been the optimist ... ;0

13:13 < dec0de> africa is where it's at
13:15 < moebius_> Dear Sirs, I am the son of the deposed Prime Minister of
                  Nigeria. We are in possession of 93,208,512 IP addresses and
                  wish to request your assistance...

/kc

Note that the ARIN, APNIC, and RIPE lines should all basically level
out to asymptotes after they hit 1 /8 left, due to the "soft run out"
policies in place [1][2][3]. Either that, or just consider arriving
at 1 /8 left as depletion.

Geoff: How are your graphs dealing with these policies?

[1] <https://www.arin.net/policy/nrpm.html#four10>
[2] <http://www.apnic.net/policy/add-manage-policy#9.10.1>
[3] <http://ripe.net/ripe/policies/proposals/2010-02.html>

From: Richard Barnes [mailto:richard.barnes@gmail.com]
Sent: Wednesday, February 02, 2011 10:44 AM
To: Tony Hain
Cc: Vincent Hoffman; nanog@nanog.org
Subject: Re: ipv4's last graph

Note that the ARIN, APNIC, and RIPE lines should all basically level
out to asymptotes after they hit 1 /8 left, due to the "soft run out"
policies in place [1][2][3]. Either that, or just consider arriving
at 1 /8 left as depletion.

The /8 that applies to those policies has not been allocated yet ... ask
again tomorrow.

Would it make more sense to mark the graph at 1 with an asterisk, or just
leave those out of this graph all together? If you care about how well the
policy is managing the end of the pool, then marking 1 is the right thing,
while if you only care about when 'old policy' stops then it makes more
sense to just leave them off.

Tony

Currently there is no policy in ARIN that would do that short of the last /10,
so, the line should change at 1/4 of the last /8.

Owen

(I'm plonked by Randy, so I doubt he will get this. I don't necessarily
care too much about that.)

I doubt Geoff is getting the "big bucks" that he could get at a few
other places in the region. He used to work for the incumbent telco
in .au, and based on what the last CEO was paid, he'd probably have
been on a very good wicket these days if he'd chosen to stay there. He
didn't.

(Randy, if you see this, you do add a lot of value to the community.
However, I think your knee-jerk, childish and schoolyard reactions would
also loose you a lot of the respect that you've earned from the work
that you've done. Please just accept that not everybody will always
agree with your opinions, despite how informed and experienced they
are.)