Seeing Double

There is an often quoted statistic of the Internet
doubling every 12 months. If we look at a snippet of
data from the old NSFNet data from ANS, we can see this
pretty clearly...

  Month Inbound
  9409 36
  9410 44
  9411 45
  9412 46
  9409 71
  9410 85
  9411 90
  9412 78
  9501 71
  9502 57
  9503 64
  9504 36

(the decrease after November due to the different NSF regionals
transitioning to their new providers)

While it was never possible to have a view of all of the traffic
on the Net, these NSFNet stats were useful as a representative
sample of the entire whole. In particular, this doubling time
is quite useful as a metric to try and judge general network
growth and for planning. Obviously several things in the past
year have occured that have greatly shortened this time. Amongst
them the explosion of Web traffic and interactive applications,
the huge number of new companies connecting their coporate LANS
to the Net, the [I'm running out of synoymns for enormous, ah]
enormous number of new companies selling and promoting Net and
Web services. This is coupled with the big increase in
infrastructure that ISPs and NSPs have built that help move all
these bits about.

I've see a few guesses on this list as to a doubling rate, but
I'm wondering if there is a way to judge this growth in some
sort of external and non-proprietary way.

Perhaps a relationship between "average traffic" and the number
of routes? This probably wouldn't hold in the specific
(because of the degree of use of CIDR at a particular ISP),
but may hold in the aggregate. Thinking caps?
-scott (
MCI Internet Engineering

I just look at ip bgp sum and see that I a mnow at 32600. abot 1000 more
thatn last week.

currently we seem to gain 1000/mo;