Thus the application effect being talked about.
Sure, I understand that. I was making a different assumption...
That the sources of traffic were likely from downstream ASs, not
"ISP A", or even B or C, and as such, the multiplication could
happen per prefix.
However, without knowing the number of "penalizing events", what
constitutes a penalizing event, and aggressiveness of your peers
suppression policies -- or the source distribution of the traffic,
it's tough to tell.