Request for comments

Good people of NANOG,

Please find here a snapshot of two datasets concerning access technologies in the metro area.

The bar chart on the right summarizes data I collected last year from *NOGs;
the bar chart on the left summarizes data received last year from Tier 1 and/or regional operators (incumbents).
The y-axis shows cumulative responses for an option; the x-axis shows (hopefully unambiguous) monikers for the access technologies.

Would anyone care to comment on how well this matches his/her perception of the current state of deployments?



The UK has an annual survey by the regulator

There are some UK specific terms due to marketing (such as FTTC = fibre
to the cabinet which uses VDSL2 to the home)

For your graphs -

We have a large now legacy VDSL2 population probably around 80%, little
G.FAST as that was a dead end while trying to avoid fibre.

A fair bit of ADSL2+ in usually rural areas and outliers not covered by
FTTC, estimate 10% though this is being rapidly targeted by FTTH

Various DOCSIS is just called cable, I can't differentiate the
generations installed. There is one operator with around 20% market
share. It's dead tech now except for refresh while they try and keep
competitors at bay until they can move to fibre themselves. It's
fast enough for now but all marketing is for gigabit fibre though
most do not take 1Gb/s service.

FWA and 4/5G are relatively small though 4G has had some success
as a stop gap in rural.

The VDSL2 and ADSL2+ are most rapidly being replaced with the only
growing tech, fibre, which was around 10%. This is the only tech of
interest, anyone building something else is doomed.

Most of the fibre is GPON, a little XG, and some AE (which I've also
built a little of). The incumbent is driving the GPON, there are many
altnets building but just doing the same as they fight for customers
while they overbuild each other, it's starting to get a bit messy with
resulting M&A.


I’ve updated the graphic with one other data point and increased the graphic’s size (following feedback).

In particular, I’d like to understand why there are so many operators who consider Active Ethernet (p2p)
to be their largest and/or fastest growing access technology.

Would anyone care to give an opinion / interpretation / perspective / other ?



The picture changes significantly when an operator’s choice is weighted by his current subscriber base.
Evidently, incumbents have lots of copper media, while smaller operators (more agile?) are laying fibre and mostly growing GPON on it.

Rebuttals are welcome !

Unweighted data

Weighted data (weighted by number of subscribers)



Quick (and critical) correction:

bar charts on the left are from *NOGs;
bar charts on the right are from commissioned market research.