RE: Worst case worm damage estimates: Research

Laurence F. Sheldon, Jr.
Just one question--who is paying to get the production
work done while all this is going on?

I never said it was free, but nothing close to the figures mentioned
earlier. Reality check guys: a desktop PC costs $500 these days,
spending $800 to repair a used one does not make sense.

If your desktop support guys are half-organized, they have a replacement
machine ready to install when the user calls for service, then the
machine that as problem (which often is PICNIC: Problem In Chair Not In
Computer) goes on the bench where the time it takes to reload a fresh
Windows is 5 minutes, time to plug the cables in and pop the Ghost CD


This is where I agree with Paxson and Weaver, there isn't a deep supply
line for replacement PCs. If 50 million PCs fall over in a single
morning, its unlikely the PC repair people will have enough replacement
machines ready instantly. Its the supermarket effect before a big
snowstorm, they run out of milk and bread within a couple of hours.
But then what happens? People starve? or is there product substitution?

But I disagree with the repair costs and even the productivity impact.
We have some experience with defective software, operator error and
destructive maleware. My concern is over-estimates and under-estimates
can lead to poor decisions. Unfortunately, we don't have a good way to
get the proprietary data that does exist into a useful form for public
decision making.

The perfect storm scenario is interesting. But it needs to be validated
against "business as usual" and cost of historical product recalls.