From: mdevney@teamsphere.com [mailto:mdevney@teamsphere.com]
Sent: Friday, March 16, 2001 7:00 AM> > Yup, it's all about capitalism, and nothing about
technical correctness.*sigh*
>
> The long-term maximization of ROI requires technical correctness.
> Unfortunately there is often alot of arbitrage by people with
> very short-term goals. Sadly, some of the worst technologies are
> the ones that get lots of short-term interest.
>
Slightly off-topic here, but am I the only one who is concerned by the
fact that virtually all businesses define "ultra long term"
as 5 years or
less? It seems that 5 years is about the limits of Capitalism's
vision... The Internet, while very young, is still 5 or 6
times that old.
It is the limit of anyone's vision. That's simply because our rate of
progress has become so high that we can no longer see that far into the
future. The crystal ball no longer works reliably more than 12-18 months
out. Anyone pitching a 5-year plan at the VC gets laughed at, rightfully so.
The markets have become way too volatile. Ages ago, before GM bought Hughes,
we had five-year plans that we updated quarterly. Even HAC doesn't do that
anymore.
Is there a recent update to MegaTrends?