K Claffy at LANR suggested I contactb you.
At GTE Labs we are working on design of IP backbone facilities for ADSL
access services. One of the challenges is to be able to project traffic
growth per ADSL useer for the next 3-5 years.
Can you direct me to sources of the followinmg:
(1) Measured internet traffic statitics at NAPs for the past two years.
(Info available at NAP Web sites that I have found is only for the last
(2) Some measurements of growth of traffic/user over the past two years.
So, for a fixed or known user population ( eg a Univ campus or an ISP's
pool) how has traffic per user grown?
(3) Anything else that would be useful.
So I would greatly appreciate it if you could direct me to some source.
Don't build an ADSL network, build a HDSL network, i.e. symmetric, not
assymetric. Interactive gaming, video confereing all are symmetric.
Interactive gaming (people to people interaction in virtual worlds) will
be the killer entertainment application that drives many people to use the
Internet. Then there is video conferencing, telephone over IP, CD quality
audio. Not to mention new services that use X-Windows of similar
technolgoy to allow people to rent software/computers via the net. Of
course, nightly offsite backups of data could also consume large amounts
I doubt that historical data is that usefull. It will show exponential
growth, i.e. a doubling every few time units. Traffic per user jumps when
new applications are introduced! People who are logging on to read email
consume almost no bandwidth, people who are browsing the web consume
bandwidth in spurts. People who are playing Quake or are making an IP
pohne call consume about 2Kb/sec continuously. People who are backing up
their 5GB ($500) harddrive overnight will consume the equivalent of 1/2
In other words, nobody knows what aplications are coming down the road, so
build as much capacity as you can afford. As a lower limit, assume that at
least 10% of your subscribers will saturate a full full-duplex link at any
time by using video conferencing.