I see the Disney service went live today, with some load issues according to various news reports and down detector. Is it well known where the newly released Disney+ streaming service content is sourced? Are they using their own servers on AS22604 or using one or more of the established CDNs? Or something combination or something else entirely?
As the service grows in popularity, and its breadth of content and manageable price is likely to attract a lot of growth, I’d like to plan for any necessary augmentations to the network. I have not yet seen a noticeable change in traffic trends locally but I am sure during the evening time it is likely to be more apparent where it all comes from.
From the end-user/viewer network capacity perspective is a new
streaming service likely to (significantly) "add new viewers" or more
likely to just shift existing viewers away from an existing service
(i.e Netflix, Amazon, Hulu, etc.) to Disney, resulting in a net-wash
from the end-user/viewer network capacity perspective?
I guess the question is, will Disney content compel users who are not
already streaming to start streaming?
Fair enough, in the cases where operators are Netflix OC partners and
might see a shift in network use from a Netflic OC appliance to
external their network to other streaming services.
But for an operator who doesn't have an OC Appliances, is there likely
to be much difference? I suppose that was the context I was thinking
in.
That said, I (admittedly, idly) wonder what percentage of users (world-
wide, by nation, geographical area, etc.) are served by OC Appliances.
I really have no clue as to the penetration of OC Appliances.
Fair enough, in the cases where operators are Netflix OC partners and
might see a shift in network use from a Netflic OC appliance to
external their network to other streaming services.
But for an operator who doesn't have an OC Appliances, is there likely
to be much difference? I suppose that was the context I was thinking
in.
Sure. You could see changes in where traffic comes from. It may shift from peering to transit.
That said, I (admittedly, idly) wonder what percentage of users (world-
wide, by nation, geographical area, etc.) are served by OC Appliances.
I really have no clue as to the penetration of OC Appliances.
OCAs make a huge difference in our network. Between the two ASs we operate in different regions - to the tune of maybe 40 Gbps.
I can foresee a lot of families subscribing to Netflix *and* Disney+
because neither one has all the content the family wants to watch.
Has anybody seen a significant drop in total streaming traffic due to Netflix
users jumping ship to Amazon/Hulu, or are consumers just biting the bullet,
coughing up the $$, and streaming more total because across the services
there's more stuff they want to watch?
I can foresee a lot of families subscribing to Netflix *and* Disney+
because neither one has all the content the family wants to watch.
Absolutely. But the time spent watching Disney would *replace* (not be
in addition to, or would it? Would Disney's content result in existing
streamers watching more hours of streaming than they did before?)
Netflix watching.
Has anybody seen a significant drop in total streaming traffic due to
Netflix
users jumping ship to Amazon/Hulu, or are consumers just biting the
bullet,
coughing up the $$, and streaming more total because across the
services
there's more stuff they want to watch?
I actually suspect streaming is going to decline (at least in
comparison to where it could have grown to) if this streaming service
fragmentation continues.
I think people are going to reject the idea that they need to subscribe
to a dozen streaming services at $10-$20/mo. each and will be driven
back the good old "single source" (piracy) they used to use before 1
(or perhaps 2) streaming services kept them happy enough to abandon
piracy.
The content providers are going to piss in their bed again due to
greed. Again.
Now the parents can be watching “Good Omens” or “Game of Thrones” on Netflix while the kids are streaming “The Lion King” on Disney+ streaming. Instead of the whole family watching one show together, now we have segmentation in the marketplace.
End result is more total overall bandwidth consumption.
Neither Good Omens nor Game of Thrones are available for streaming on Netflix (you’ll have to go to one of their competitors). Overall I tend to agree with Brian that people’s time and eyeballs are finite. As more streaming services emerge, usage will simply be split between streaming providers. There might be a slight increase in overall streaming usage due to the effect you mentioned (more content available for a wider audience than in previous years), but I don’t expect it to be an overnight change for our industry.
They can already stream different content to multiple devices simultaneously.
All this does is make some content that wasn’t available previously now available.
People can really only watch one thing at a time. Net streaming of the last mile
is unlikely to change much. Just where that content is coming from may change.
I guess the question is, will Disney content compel users who are not
already streaming to start streaming?
Maybe, maybe not.
But what is 100% certain is that Disney knows how to make content that people want to watch a LOT of , and Disney+ is going to be the only place to get that content. Customers are going to go where the content they want to watch is. That’s not going to be Netflix/Amazon/Hulu, unless their forays into original content do a major reversal.
That are already satisfied with existing services, so no new target
audiences.
Now the parents can be watching "Good Omens" or "Game of Thrones" on
Netflix while the kids are streaming "The Lion King" on Disney+
streaming.
But they could watch lots of (Disney even) content on Netflix already.
So I still don't see an increase in consumption just because of
Disney+.
Instead of the whole family watching one show together, now we have
segmentation in the marketplace.
Disney+ doesn't change "whole family watching one show together" (or
not -- because individuals watching their own streams is already
possible) model from the current model.
I agree with this. I mean, it might bring on a few new streaming
viewers but these would be those who haven't yet transitioned to
streaming video for the majority of their watching habits. So this
won't really establish a new audience but it could help siphon more
away from cable/sattelite. Its just the equivilant of a new channel
coming along. One person can only practically watch one show at a time
(maybe doesn't apply to football games...) so if there's a given
audience size, all this really does is shuffle the ratings around a
bit.
As to the "$10-20/mo for eight different services", I tend to think
that people are gonna rebel at some point and seek out some sort of a
centralized service and we'll kinda be back to where we started, with
each source getting payment for the specific program viewed. Hard to
tell, but the fragmentation thing will start to come to the forefront
before too much longer, IMO.
Apropos of something, Sony has announce that it's pulling the plug on its PlayStation Vue Internet streaming TV service via the PlayStation PS4 platform, effective January 30, 2020.
Might free-up some bandwidth for someone, somewhere...
My point was that Disney has a lock on much of the content kids love.
Netflix/HBO/AmazonPrime, not so much.
So, the new eyeballs aren’t going to be from parents watching different shows, it’ll be from parents watching their adult-ish stuff, while the kids are happily ensconced with Disney+.
I called out Game of Thrones and Good Omens as shows that are popular with adults but that aren’t terribly family friendly, so you won’t be getting many 12-and-unders watching them.
My point was that Disney has a lock on much of the content kids love.
Which was, until Disney+, on Netflix.
Netflix/HBO/AmazonPrime, not so much.
The above article (and the number of kids in my life with their
eyeballs constantly glued to TV screens) says otherwise.
So, the new eyeballs aren't going to be from parents watching
different
shows, it'll be from parents watching their adult-ish stuff, while
the kids
are happily ensconced with Disney+.
But those little eyeballs aren't new. They have already been watching
as much streaming as their parents would allow -- unrestricted in
probably too many cases.
I called out Game of Thrones and Good Omens as shows that are popular
with
adults but that aren't terribly family friendly, so you won't be
getting
many 12-and-unders watching them.
No, instead they were already watching the ass-barn-load of kids
content that is on the existing streaming services.