-Hank
We looked into how RIPE Atlas saw these cable cuts: https://labs.ripe.net/author/emileaben/does-the-internet-route-around-damage-baltic-sea-cable-cuts/ . I hope this audience finds that interesting.
kind regards,
Emile Aben
RIPE NCC
The rumours floating around about this being sabotage, with no hard evidence supporting such claims, is pretty wild. Mark.
I’m not sure what hard evidence you might like. There are a small number of methods by which submarine cables become damaged - anchors are right up there. In this particular case, there aren’t a lot of other possibilities.
There are only two cable repair ships. It will be a while before there can be forensic examination.
Dan
I think sabotage implies intent.
The rumours floating around about this being sabotage, with no hard evidence supporting such claims, is pretty wild.
No hard evidence?
- Marine tracking shows the suspect vessel deviating from normal course, and stopping twice, each time in the area of where each cable was damaged.
- After the vessel started moving again, each cable went offline shortly after.
- The Danish navy has stopped the suspect vessel, and is holding it pending investigation.
- The same country admitted to dragging an anchor hundreds of miles , damaging multiple subsea cables and other infrastructure just 13 months ago. Of course, it was an ‘accident’ .
There’s plenty of evidence (both direct and circumstantial) for the claims being made to be reasonable.
Left here without comment:
- Jared
Intent? This is almost certainly sabotage. I’m unsure why there are such mental gymnastics. Submarine cables are sabotaged periodically.
Dan
I think sabotage implies intent.
Even the most incompetent crew of an ocean going vessel knows if their anchor has dropped. And if by chance that’s happened, they don’t drag it around for a few hundred miles before they stop and pull it back in again.
Russian crew on a Chinese vessel.I mean how can anyone even doubt the intent.
This is such a tragic comedy on many levels.
Frank
It is well known that NordStream was sabotaged by the Russians .. 
Since when are there only two cable repair ships?
Shane
I’m not sure what hard evidence you might like. There are a small number of methods by which submarine cables become damaged - anchors are right up there. In this particular case, there aren’t a lot of other possibilities.
There are only two cable repair ships. It will be a while before there can be forensic examination.
Dan
This organization alone has at least 3 cable repair ships in its fleet:
The estimate for just the North Atlantic region is over a dozen cable repair ships, with the global count hovering around 60.
I think you might need to update your numbers. ^_^;
Matt
The number of repair ships available to a specific cable is much more
limited than the global number of repair ships. Each cable has a
contract with a specific provider of repair services, and that
provider shares its repair ships among a number of cable systems.
Rubens
Considering how often subsea cable sabotage is romanticized, actual incidents are not readily available to refer to. In my eyes operating in this space, there is only one I have been aware of in Egypt, in 2013.
At the moment, this is being classified as an accident. There isn't sufficient data to suggest otherwise.
Mark.
If it's that compelling, we should know soon.
Mark.
They are? Citation?
Mark.
Below article outlines cases of sabotage (page 81) in 2007 in Bangladesh, 2010 in the Philippines, and attempted sabotage in 2013 in Egypt.
Hardly regular enough to even be considered "periodic".
The Philippines incident was a BMH attack, which is usually the dry side. So that doesn't really qualify.
I recall the Egypt number... that was pretty brazen, as it nearly affected a cable I was operating at the time.
I'm not sure Nord Stream qualifies since the cable itself wasn't directly targeted.
It doesn't.
Arguing about if it was sabotage or not isn't really helpful until authorities give a statement.
Agreed, which was my initial point.
But in either case it would be good for nations to increase focus on securing submarine cable infrastructure, in whatever capacity that might take.
The nature of cables being usually private makes this difficult. The sheer amount of subsea infrastructure that is out there does not make this feasible. Some operators do pay a bit of attention to this, but not in any appreciable degree if you consider the industry at large.
Good on the FCC for finally reviewing that?
As with all things, the devil is in the implementation details.
Mark.
On average about 200 submarine cable damage incidents every year
Essentially all submarine cable damage is accidental not sabotage. The few cases of intentional attacks is so rare, that folks in the industry know them as part of the stories passed down.
Easy to accuse but takes months to do the forensics. Insurance claims and lawyers,
Below article outlines cases of sabotage (page 81) in 2007 in Bangladesh, 2010 in the Philippines, and attempted sabotage in 2013 in Egypt. I’m not sure Nord Stream qualifies since the cable itself wasn’t directly targeted. Arguing about if it was sabotage or not isn’t really helpful until authorities give a statement. But in either case it would be good for nations to increase focus on securing submarine cable infrastructure, in whatever capacity that might take. Good on the FCC for finally reviewing that?
https://scholarship.law.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1001&context=jlt