Michael Dillon wrote:
ISPs who don't have IPv6 will soon be unable to provide access to all
Internet sites, as content providers begin to bring IPv6 sites onstream.
And ISPs without IPv6 will not be able to continue growing their networks,
even for something as trivial as an existing customer who moves to a
different PoP.
It is April Fool's Day somewhere on Earth already (9:49PM Eastern here
as I write this).
What is the local time where you are Michael?
--Patrick
I'm a real life user, I know the difference and I could careless about
v6. most anything I want I is on v4 and will still be there long
after ( when ever it is) we run out of v4 addresses. If I'm on a
From a content perspective, you may be right. Those with a quickly
dwindling supply of v4 addresses will most likely use what they have left
for business customers, and for content.
However, there will be a time when a significant number of
customers will not be able to access your content.
content provider and I'm putting something new online I want everyone
to see, they will find away for all of us with v4 and credit cards to
see it, and not be so worried about developing countries or the sub 5%
of people in developed countries for now. I'm sure @ some point v6
What percentage of sales are you willing to eat?
will see the business need, but while I'm expect to have to deploy it
for marketing reasons, I hope its someone else's problem but its a
must have for real business.
Are you willing to gamble your business on your expectations? Business
models will develop that will take advantage of global addressing to end
devices. The Next Big (Nth) Thing will. Do you feel that you have a perfect
Crystal Ball, or do you want to start hedging your bets now?
Dan White wrote:
I'm a real life user, I know the difference and I could careless about
v6. most anything I want I is on v4 and will still be there long
after ( when ever it is) we run out of v4 addresses. If I'm on aFrom a content perspective, you may be right. Those with a quickly
dwindling supply of v4 addresses will most likely use what they have left
for business customers, and for content.However, there will be a time when a significant number of
customers will not be able to access your content.
^^ Uncertainty .
What percentage of sales are you willing to eat?
^^ Fear .
will see the business need, but while I'm expect to have to deploy it
for marketing reasons, I hope its someone else's problem but its a
must have for real business.Are you willing to gamble your business on your expectations? Business
models will develop that will take advantage of global addressing to end
devices. The Next Big (Nth) Thing will. Do you feel that you have a perfect
Crystal Ball, or do you want to start hedging your bets now?
^^ Doubt.
--Patrick
Dan White wrote:
Are you willing to gamble your business on your expectations? Business
models will develop that will take advantage of global addressing to end
devices. The Next Big (Nth) Thing will. Do you feel that you have a
perfect
Crystal Ball, or do you want to start hedging your bets now?^^ Doubt.
We have just (anecdotally, empirically) established earlier in this
thread, that anything smaller than a mid-sized business, can't even
*GET* IPv6 easily (at least in the USA); much less care about it.
Talking about a "crystal ball", in my view, is just a lot of hand-waving
that means "I don't have a real-world example to point to".
Talking about "the Next Big Thing" means that somehow, the NBT will be
present without any residential or small business broadband users
partaking in it. Sounds like a pretty small piece of the pie for the NBT...
For the record, I have no dog in this fight; I just think that the
rhetoric / fanboi-ism / advocacy level is just a little too high -
emotion rather than reason is taking over in the course of debate, which
for me at least, is unwelcome.
Cordially
Patrick
As a (small) service provider with very stiff competition from much larger
providers where I work, we have to have a perfect Crystal Ball, or hedge
our bets.
Customer needs are constantly changing, and are a constantly moving target.
Historically we have a good understanding of what they want. We were the
first broadband provider in our footprint for several years, but we have
lost customers to competition as well.
Technology is most notable when it is disruptive, and is probably most
devastating to a company like our's when it is. We will only survive if we
are prepared, and that's the same advice I would offer anyone who has a
penny to lose in this game.
We have just (anecdotally, empirically) established earlier in this
thread, that anything smaller than a mid-sized business, can't even
*GET* IPv6 easily (at least in the USA); much less care about it.
fwiw, that last time I was at a company that needed a prefix, we wrote
up an addressing plan, applied, received an assignment, payed our money
and were done. if a pool of public addresses are a resource you need to
run your business you can secure it, and it's simpler and dealing with
for example health insurance.
Dan White wrote:
Are you willing to gamble your business on your expectations? Business
models will develop that will take advantage of global addressing to end
devices. The Next Big (Nth) Thing will. Do you feel that you have a
perfect
Crystal Ball, or do you want to start hedging your bets now?^^ Doubt.
We have just (anecdotally, empirically) established earlier in this
thread, that anything smaller than a mid-sized business, can't even
*GET* IPv6 easily (at least in the USA); much less care about it.
Huh??? I missed that somewhere. The previous paragraph is:
Falsehood
Uncertainty
Doubt
Contrary evidence:
whois -h whois.arin.net 2620:0:930::/48 -- ARIN Direct Assignment
Multihomed Household
Qualified under stricter policy than is now in effect.
http://www.tunnelbroker.net (yes, I work there, but, you don't have to work there
to get a /48 for free).
Talking about a "crystal ball", in my view, is just a lot of hand-waving
that means "I don't have a real-world example to point to".
Real world web site multi-homed, dual-stacked, and running just fine.
Talking about "the Next Big Thing" means that somehow, the NBT will be
present without any residential or small business broadband users
partaking in it. Sounds like a pretty small piece of the pie for the NBT...
Again, conclusions not in evidence. It's easy for anyone who wants it to
get IPv6 and IPv6 connectivity. Sure, native IPv6 is a little harder to get,
but, overall, I'm doing OK with tunnels of various forms and native will
be coming along shortly in many many more places.
Owen
Until there are common sites that are only accessible via IPv6 -- thus
unavailable to "unevolved" ISP customers, ISP won't be investing
anything in IPv6 deployment. That's not to say ISPs aren't
experimenting with it -- some are, simply that they are not putting
any heavy engineering resources behind it.
I beg to differ. I know several ISPs that have been quietly putting quite
a bit of engineering resource behind IPv6. The public announcement
of residential IPv6 trials by Comcast was not the beginning of a serious
commitment to IPv6 by Comcast, but, rather more towards the middle.
Comcast has had substantial engineering resources on IPv6 for
several years now.
Will IPv6-only content be common soon? Probably not for at least
another 5 years. Will IPv6-only eye-balls with severely degraded
IPv4 customer experiences be common sooner? You bet. That one
is unavoidable as there simply won't be IPv4 address space to use
for some significant fraction of those customers.
Owen
I don't have any reference to support the idea that 100% of regular
users want IPv6, I don't think they know or care to know what IPv6 is
or what's the difference with IPv4 which most probably they don't know
either besides few configuration screens of the devices they use.
What for sure they eally want is high speed, reliable and omnipresent
connectivity.
I regularly ask about IPv6 when I find new information about a Home
CPE class router because I'm engaged in some activities related to
connecting "things" (which I don't intend to mean that people are also
things), particularly in residential applications.
Think about a combination of wired/wireless sensors and devices,
energy management, security, home automation stuff. On the wireless
front we are making some progress (probably too slow) on the IETF with
6LoWPAN, many other applications are gradually switching to ethernet
or at least using lite TCP/IP.
Then my interest is to have better knowledge about what on that class
of equipment is on the pipeline, to deal with questions such as, do
the particular application I mentioned above needs to be developed
totally with native IPv6 ?, or IPv4 ?, or combination of both ?, do we
require translation/tunneling/etc ?, or can defer that function to
another device that will take care to send and get the packets from/to
the net ?
That sort of thing.
Just to play with, I purchased a soekris net5501 board (very nice
board for that price) and planning to start playing with it using
FreeBSD. I took a look at the RouterBoard but the firmware license is
too restrictive and there is no much hacking (well there is always a
way to hack) you can do, but they are dirty cheap.
Cheers
Jorge
>>
>> In fact, consumer demand for IPv6 is close to 100%.
>
> Michael, I think you fat-fingered "0%".
>
> Just to be clear, I'm talking about the real world here.I did not fat finger anything. In the real world, nearly 100% of consumers
demand IPv6 from their ISP.
Exactly. Running out of "Internet Phone Numbers" is an unacceptable
excuse to both customers and ISP management.
There is an indication here of the fault that is present in way too much
of the world.
We have here another example of
[engineers|elites|experts|people-with-soap-boxes] think something is a
good idea THEREFORE "Everybody wants it".
My rant here needs refurbishment to account for wireless connections,
but I've gotten a lot of mileage out of it.
Most people of the world want something to eat. Omitting all of the
intermediate steps, the few that have all of their other needs taken
care of want smart wall paper.
Most care not a whit how the wallpaper does it, they just want when the
plug a lamp into it to get light. A toaster, warmed bread. A computer,
to be able to exchange email, read the news, watch pornography, or play
games.
Kindasorta related:
http://www.4-blockworld.com/2010/03/computers-just-keep-getting-cheaper-and-better.html
But were you able to get transit that let you use the address space?
I'm sure it's getting better, but as recently as 2 years ago it was near impossible to get for most areas (and most providers, and most colo facilities).
Worst case, it's easy with a free tunnel now, and, in most cases, better solutions are readily available.
Owen
We have just (anecdotally, empirically) established earlier in this
thread, that anything smaller than a mid-sized business, can't even
*GET* IPv6 easily (at least in the USA); much less care about it.fwiw, that last time I was at a company that needed a prefix, we wrote
up an addressing plan, applied, received an assignment, payed our money
and were done. if a pool of public addresses are a resource you need toBut were you able to get transit that let you use the address space?
The entities that we pay money to to provide us with ip transit were
willing to carry our ipv6 prefix yes, at the time, not all of them could
do it on the first-hop router.
I'm sure it's getting better, but as recently as 2 years ago it was near
impossible to get for most areas (and most providers, and most colo
facilities).
talk to your sales person, then make sure that their AS appears in the
ipv6 DFZ. The well connected ASes at the center of the graph are
prepared to sell you services.
So tell me Patrick - if you're not doing anything about it while it's still FUD,
that leaves 2 questions:
1) How long will it take for you to design, test, and deploy once it's no
longer FUD?
2) Will your business survive the ensuing pain waiting for deploy to complete?
I beg to differ. I know several ISPs that have been quietly putting
quite
a bit of engineering resource behind IPv6. The public announcement
of residential IPv6 trials by Comcast was not the beginning of a
serious
commitment to IPv6 by Comcast, but, rather more towards the middle.
Comcast has had substantial engineering resources on IPv6 for
several years now.
None of my transit providers currently offer native ipv6 where we are
located. One recent vendor said they could tunnel 6 over 4 but any
network address blocks assigned to that network would change at some
point in the future. In other words, we could do v6 over 4 now but we
would have to renumber later.
What I heard at a recent (within the past six months) conference was
that "there is no customer demand for v6" so it isn't on the immediate
needs list. He said they had a lot of inquiries about v6, but to date
not having native v6 wasn't a deal breaker with anyone.
So my instincts tell me that until not being native v6 capable IS a deal
breaker with potential clients, it isn't really going to go on the front
burner. Many companies operate on the "it isn't a problem until it is a
problem" model.
George
What I heard at a recent (within the past six months) conference was
that "there is no customer demand for v6" so it isn't on the immediate
needs list. He said they had a lot of inquiries about v6, but to date
not having native v6 wasn't a deal breaker with anyone.
Last time we renegotiated transit contracts, we specified IPv6 as an
absolute requirement. *Native* IPv6 was an added plus. As it turned
out, two of our chosen transit providers could deliver native IPv6
from day one, and the third a few months later.
Native IPv6 availability was one of several factors used to make the
decision between transit providers.
Steinar Haug, Nethelp consulting, sthaug@nethelp.no
I beg to differ. I know several ISPs that have been quietly putting
quite
a bit of engineering resource behind IPv6. The public announcement
of residential IPv6 trials by Comcast was not the beginning of a
serious
commitment to IPv6 by Comcast, but, rather more towards the middle.
Comcast has had substantial engineering resources on IPv6 for
several years now.None of my transit providers currently offer native ipv6 where we are
located. One recent vendor said they could tunnel 6 over 4 but any
network address blocks assigned to that network would change at some
point in the future. In other words, we could do v6 over 4 now but we
would have to renumber later.
You can get a permanent IPv6 address from the tunnel brokers at
Hurricane or SIXXS. You can get an IPv6 PI Block from an RIR
and route that via BGP over an HE tunnel.
(Some people get upset when I say this and don't mention I work
for HE. I work for HE because I think the above free services are
cool and I like what they're doing with IPv6.)
What I heard at a recent (within the past six months) conference was
that "there is no customer demand for v6" so it isn't on the immediate
needs list. He said they had a lot of inquiries about v6, but to date
not having native v6 wasn't a deal breaker with anyone.
I watched a vendor at one conference tell 20 people in a row that each
one of them was the only one asking for IPv6. I mentioned to him that
he should have his short-term memory loss checked out by a physician.
At first he was confused. When I pointed out what I had just seen him
do, he went from confused to embarrassed and admitted that it was
the party line from his marketing department and they knew IPv6
was important, but, didn't have a story to tell yet, so, they were trying
to spin for delay.
So my instincts tell me that until not being native v6 capable IS a deal
breaker with potential clients, it isn't really going to go on the front
burner. Many companies operate on the "it isn't a problem until it is a
problem" model.
It _IS_ a deal breaker for some potential clients. It _WILL_ be a
deal breaker for an increasingly large number of clients over the
next couple of years. I suspect that it will be less than 2 years before
you see every client insisting that they need IPv6 capability RIGHT
NOW.
Owen