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Hi Bill,
Just as an observation, it appears to me (at least) that the
most popular method of video distribution today is via GooTube. 
I think it remains to be seen that that model will actually change
dramatically to more of a "semi- real-time" model, regardless of
the desires (or fears) of various vendors or operators.
$.02,
- - ferg
From: owner-nanog@merit.edu [mailto:owner-nanog@merit.edu] On
Behalf Of Fergie
Sent: Tuesday, January 09, 2007 9:38 AM
To: bill.norton@gmail.com
Cc: nanog@merit.edu
Subject: Re: Internet Video: The Next Wave of Massive
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Hash: SHA1Hi Bill,
Just as an observation, it appears to me (at least) that the
most popular method of video distribution today is via GooTube.I think it remains to be seen that that model will actually change
dramatically to more of a "semi- real-time" model, regardless of
the desires (or fears) of various vendors or operators.$.02,
- - ferg
GooTube mostly carries the bottom 5% of the content (apologies to the
GooTubers on the list).
I think this discussion is going towards the content that one would
**actually** like to see. I understand there are people that don't watch
TV at all. I am not one of them. I have had a Tivo since when they first
came out. The problem that I see is that the product pipeline for how TV
content should be distributed and watched got constipated mostly due to
the pressure from the content owners (possibly justified).
The big change is that when storing content and distributing content
goes down to asymptotically free,
then the rules of the game change completely. No one said that this
mystical box will replace live TV, what it would do is to replace the
premium content on live TV with something more robust, with infinite
selection (ok, near infinite selection). This will also make the market
more competitive.
From an SP perspective, I don't think the SPs have a choice. All they
can do IMHO, is to move from the current model to the new model, or
perish. I don't think content filtering is going to catch up with this
type of content distribution anytime soon.
Let's see what Jobs has in the pipeline with AppleTV announced today at
Macworld. That 40GB hard drive looks very suspicious to me 
Regards
Bora
:
Just as an observation, it appears to me (at least) that the
most popular method of video distribution today is via GooTube.I think it remains to be seen that that model will actually change
dramatically to more of a "semi- real-time" model, regardless of
the desires (or fears) of various vendors or operators.
Hmm...I should have been more clear. I'm comparing the options a video
guy has : buy transit to distribute the videos, buy CDN services, buy
a mix or transit and peering, or use P2P. I have sample configurations
and cost models for each, and cost them in units of $/video
distributed for side to side comparison.
From the reviews and discussions it was interesting how entrenched and
enraged some people became when the p2p distribution model costed out
to be the cheapest by far:
Models A:10 videos/5 min B: 100/5min C: 1000/5min
1: Transit 1A: $0.60
1B: $0.36
1C: $0.20
2: CDN 2A: $0.77
2B: $0.44
2C: $0.24
3: Hybrid 3A: $0.69
3B: $0.31
3C: $0.17
4: P2P 4A:$0.18
4B: $0.0177
4C: $0.0018
Bill