in 2010, the internet society made some videos on possible internet
futures ten years out, i.e. nowish. nothing spot on, but themes
can be seen for sure.
Future Of Internet Scenarios Compilation - YouTube
randy
The production style alone takes me back. I never owned a Blackberry, but I just thought about it :-).
* They were right about platforms becoming important (tablets, mobile
phones, wearables, e.t.c.). What they didn't foresee was that
platforms and traditional OS's would be outdone by the app. The app
is now everything, and all platforms and OS's strive to do is make
sure the app is front & centre, dulling the hardware and software
fundamentals into the background.
* I can see why they envisaged the Internet getting broken up into
partitioned islands. What they didn't account for was that telco's
would no longer be in charge of building the global network at
scale, but rather, content folk.
* They put a bit of stock in classic news still being relevant 10
years on. I can see why. But hell, social media took care of that
problem :-).
* Where I would agree one of their assumptions "may" align with one
niche - the newspaper - in 2021, is that news content will not be
restricted to professional journalists, but also to regular folk who
are granted some kind of access to publish on the digital version of
a reputable paper. This, of course, is only if traditional news
media still wants to promote the idea that quality news actually
matters.
If the last decade is anything to go by, I'm keen to see what the next one brings.
Mark.
So the obvious question is what will happen to the internet 10 years from now. The last 10 years were all about phones and apps, but that's pretty well played out by now. Gratuitously networked devices like my dishwasher will probably be common, but that's hardly exciting. LEO internet providers will be coming online which might make a difference in the corners of the world where it's hard to get access, but will it allow internet access to parachute in behind the Great Firewall?
One thing that we are seeing a revolution in is with working from home. That has some implications for networking since symmetric bandwidth, or at least quite a bit more upstream would be helpful as many people found out. Is latency going to drive networking, given gaming? Gamers are not just zitty 15 year olds, they are middle aged or older nowadays.
Mike
Ten years from now? Easy. We’ll still be talking about the continued shortage of IPv4 address space and (legitimately) complaining about why IPv6 still isn’t the default addressing/routing methodology for the Internet worldwide.
-Andy
There are more smart phones in use in the world today the world than can be addressed by IPv4. Complaining about lack of IPv6 deployment has been legitimate for a long time. Telcos shouldn’t have to deploy NATs. Homes shouldn’t have to deploy NATs. Businesses shouldn’t have to deploy NATs.
NATs produce a second class Internet. We have had to lived with a second class Internet for so long that most don’t know what they are missing.
Oh, sorry to disappoint you, but they are not missing anything..
Internet become a consumer product where data is provided by
large corporations similary to TV now. Your avarage Joe consumer
does NOT care about NAT and that he cant run services or he does NOT
have full e2e communication.
Yes, you are right, NAT was a second class internet for a while but
now it seems that we cannot live without it anymore 
I dont really see other way how I can connect LAN to internet now.
Using public IPs? Thats so terrible idea. How can I be el-cheappo
dual-homed then?
But NATs are good: https://youtu.be/v26BAlfWBm8
(Since we're speaking of things from ~10 years ago...!)
I'm expecting some kind of gubbermint drive in many parts of the world (especially the developing world) to get as much free Internet in the hands of citizens as they possibly can, largely driven by the effects the Coronavirus had on economic productivity last year. This won't go down easy, though.
Mark.
Thankfully, the users who benefit from the connectivity, somehow, won't care about any of those problems.
Mark.
Well, it's simple - apps will continue to route around the inadequacies of infrastructure; even more so, over the next 10 years.
Mark.
Oh, sorry to disappoint you, but they are not missing anything..
Internet become a consumer product where data is provided by
large corporations similary to TV now. Your avarage Joe consumer
does NOT care about NAT and that he cant run services or he does NOT
have full e2e communication.
Yep - infrastructure is now implied, to the extent that customers even forget who are they paying for connectivity.
Yes, you are right, NAT was a second class internet for a while but
now it seems that we cannot live without it anymore
I dont really see other way how I can connect LAN to internet now.
Using public IPs? Thats so terrible idea. How can I be el-cheappo
dual-homed then?
As long as infrastructure continues to dilly-dally, software will fill in the gaps, even if it may cause more breakage in the eyes of the networking purists.
Mark.
I thought a fair chunk of mobile phones were using ipv6?
Mike
I think the question these days is NAT or not. It's double NAT or not.
Mike
The video is pretty good particularly where it's most pessimistic.
My prediction:
It might take a little more than ten years but I'll predict positive
ID or you're not getting anywhere useful.
And a lot of people here will loathe that.
But you/we had your chance and spent most of your energy rebuking it
and very little proposing and implementing any working alternative.
The BIG BUCK$ (corps, govts, etc) are sick to death of the current
situation and will go along with such proposals. And they have little
to zero interest in the usual arguments against it.
Note: I'm being predictive, what I think will happen, not
prescriptive, what I want to happen.
At a much higher level, I feel that we should not spend too much time predicting what will happen, as there are very clear trends that have emerged due to the growth of the Internet. But how those trends will actually shape up, no one really does know.
Moreover, because creativity knows no bounds nowadays, the pathway is not a straight line.
We should just be ready to adjust as things unfold.
Mark.
At which point, we get to see two very different types of LEO engage
in mortal combat....
PREEETTTTYYY FIREWORKS!!!
I'm sure somebody's thought about this, but are these LEO networks intended to have the downlink at home? How do the Chinas of the world intend to deal with the Great Firewall implications?
Mike
LEO internet providers will be coming online which might make a difference in the corners of the world where it's hard to get access, but will it allow internet access to parachute in behind the Great Firewall?
............
How do the Chinas of the world intend to deal with the Great Firewall implications?
This is what I hope will change in the next 10 years. "Turning off the internet" will be harder and harder for folks suppressing others, many times violently, and hiding it from everyone else. A small-ish antenna easily hidden would be necessary.
scott
Please don't forget that RF sources can be tracked down by even minimally-well-equipped adversaries.
- Jima
Spread spectrum? 
scott