Code Red growth stats

Maybe -- we need more data to be sure. But -- given that a lot of
folks have patched systems over the last two weeks -- I suspect it's
running out of "food". Look at the graph from the last go-round at
http://www.cert.org/advisories/CA-2001-23.html -- it leveled off, too.
(If the Worm is operating on UTC, the "stop" phase would have commenced
at 2000 EDT. Even if it ran on local time, Western European machines
wouldn't quiesce until 1700. The drop off starts well before that.)

    --Steve Bellovin, http://www.research.att.com/~smb

35331 so far here (from 5120 ip's of dead space), but it definatly
seems to be leveling off - graphs and data (time_t, count) here:

http://mostly.pointless.net/~jasper/cr/

* Jasper Wallace <jasper@ivision.co.uk> [010801 16:37]:

>
> >
> >
> >> I suspect we'll see it begin to pick up a little bit... it looks like
> >> Billybob is just starting to get home from work and fire up his whizbang
> >> Windows 2000 machine, which he put IIS on so he can share kewl warez and
> >> mp3z with his leet friends...
> >
> >At 1500 EDT I put a counter on one of our commodity Internet connections,
> >looking for port 80 connects to one of our unassigned /24 subnets. Here
> >are the results so far:
> >
> >1500-1530: 682
> >1530-1600: 536
> >1600-1630: 533
> >1630-1700: 643
> >
> >Seems to be picking up.
>
> Maybe -- we need more data to be sure. But -- given that a lot of
> folks have patched systems over the last two weeks -- I suspect it's
> running out of "food". Look at the graph from the last go-round at
> 2001 CERT Advisories -- it leveled off, too.
> (If the Worm is operating on UTC, the "stop" phase would have commenced
> at 2000 EDT. Even if it ran on local time, Western European machines
> wouldn't quiesce until 1700. The drop off starts well before that.)

35331 so far here (from 5120 ip's of dead space), but it definatly
seems to be leveling off - graphs and data (time_t, count) here:

http://mostly.pointless.net/~jasper/cr/

I've got 59448 from a /18's worth of assigned/unallocated space, just since
17:30 or so CDT (UTC -0500).