Some would ask, "What about increasing address usage?"
Only the ones who weren't at the ARIN meeting in
Chicago where we saw a chart showing that monthly
consumption of IP addresses continues to decrease
as it has since around the year 2000.
I would ask, "What evidence do you have that usage is increasing?"
I would ask where's the evidence, period. Not much evidence in
press articles and none in the ARIN article which was trying to
tell people where to find evidence, not to make a case on the
You've all heard of the CIDR report from http://www.potaroo.net
Has anyone checked the articles there about IPv4 consumption
First written in July
Then updated for RIPE in September
This was also presented at the Chicago ARIN and the slides
will likely be on the web in a few days.
The bottom line is that there are three different models
which may predict when we run out of IPv4 addresses. The
models predict dates ranging from 2022 to 2045. None of
the models predict an exact year, they all predict a range
of 4 to 8 years and the above dates are the earliest and
latest of those ranges.
Does anybody have statistics for assigned-but-not-announced space? I'd be
willing to bet there will be more and more dead space over the years, and
in fact quite a bit of "increasing usage" is just churn.
Some networks are actively growing these allocations.
Does anybody honestly think companies will commit the capex needed to
Yes, because IPv6 is merely and incremental improvement, not a grand
elegant solution to world hunger like ATM. Look at how we managed the
incremental step of adding MPLS to our IPv4 networks. It was fairly
painless because it uses the same boxes, the same people and the same
management systems. And over time, the pain of doing MPLS is reduced
because the bugs get worked out.
Similarly, IPv6 is an incremental change that uses the same boxes,
people and management systems. In fact, if you've put MPLS into
your core, you only need to worry about IPv6 at the edge from the
PE router to the CE router because you can use 6PE. The capex
is being spent anyway by upgrading boxes to meet capacity needs.
You didn't notice it but the new core boxes are all capable of IPv6
with a simple software feature upgrade.
if the people of this Esteemed Forum can't agree
that IPv6 is something that must happen ASAP, how will the PHBs (those
control the money) and the customers (those who control demand) ever be
NANOG rarely takes the lead in new product development and driving
market demand. Someone else will sort out that problem.
Hell, I can't even convince myself that IPv6 is neccessary. Is anybody
there totally sold on IPv6, enough to evangelize it to anybody willing to
listen? I mean, IPv6 is no CIDR...
I know that I said IPv6 is an incremental change, but the world that it
enables is not incremental. Imagine 30 years from now where the majority
of people in the developed world have full two-way voice, video, and data
communications capability seamlessly integrated into their clothing, their
vehicles, their workplace cubicles and their homes. X10 is obsolete
by IPv6 over power networks and IPv6 over Bluetooth v.3. Networks are
and it is common for even small devices to have multiple IPv6 addresses.
belt (containing the cellphone transceiver) will have 20 IPv6 addresses in
different subnets corresponding to 20 VPNs. If you know about today's SIP
networks, it's like having a phone number in INOC-DBA, FWD, SIPPhone,
etc. Except that these will be IPv6 addresses because they aren't for
traffic. One of the 20 VPNs will be for a heart-rate monitoring service
coordinates with my gym and my personal trainer. Another one might be for
an insulin level monitor that connects to my physician and pharmacy. The
pharmacist will know when the insulin pack in my shirt collar will be
and will dispatch a refill to my home automatically.
That's the problem that IPv6 is intended to solve. Providers with
can begin the process of upgrading today so that when IPv6 really is
will have a headstart. I'm not suggesting that anyone should rush IPv6
production today, but everyone on this list should be running internal
IPv6 trial networks to facilitate training of their personnel and to
that people have the experience needed to make rational and informed
decisions about IPv6.
In 1995, the Internet, a.k.a. IPv4 networks, took off with a boom and left
the legacy telcos in the dust. If you want to recreate that, then keep
your heads in the sand and other people will do IPv6 leaving you in the
dust when critical mass finally arrives. It's that simple.